Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Crickonomics

The Growth Story:

Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
GDP Growth Rate
5.95
5.53
1.06
5.48
4.77
6.65
7.57
7.56
4.05
6.19
7.39

The table shows the Indian GDP Growth Rate, from the period just before liberalization till date. A decent growth rate of 5.95% slowly deteriorated to 1.06% in 1991. Economists strongly argue that the Indian government went bankrupt and there was no other option than to liberalize. Bring in foreign investments to avoid bankruptcy and fuel growth was the mantra that was followed. With the luckiest stars in place, the move worked wonders for the economy. From thereon, the Indian economy started to shape into a stable upward curve until the software services crisis happened in 2000. Growth was hit for a couple of years, but the economy recovered not only sooner, but a lot sturdier.  

Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
GDP Growth Rate
4.03
5.22
3.77
8.37
8.28
9.32
9.27
9.82
4.93
9.1
9.72
With high growth during the period 2003-07, mainly powered by the software industry, there was a paradigm shift in the way the world looked at India. 2008 brought recession along with it, fueled by the US sub-prime crisis, but the Indian growth story remained robust. It did dip below 5%, but fared a lot better than many developed economies. A mighty recovery in 2009-10 and awaiting a double-dip in 2011, thanks to Eurozone crisis, has once again made the economists burn the midnight oil with their Excel sheets to find a way out.
The Sachin Growth Story:



Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Batting Average
35.8
41.4
19.5
41.9
91.4
70.0
29.0
41.5
62.5
80.8
68.0

The date was 15th November 1989. Indian GDP was struggling to grow at 5.95%, when Test cap no. 187 took field. He played just six innings that year with a modest average of 35.83 runs. The next year, he hit his first hundred against England and, to tell you the truth, the whole of India was watching/reading him play. Everyone was talking about this wonder-kid Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar and since Indians were busy discussing cricket, our GDP growth rate slumped to 5.53%, the next year.
In 1992, his performance got better with an average of 42 and so did India’s GDP - it grew at 5.48%. 1993 became the first feared year for the Indian economy - Sachin showered his blessings on fans with an impeccable performance with the bat, scoring at 91.43 runs per innings. Indian fans were delighted. They stopped working plainly because they were happy and could only talk about Sachin. As expected, Indian GDP growth rate declined to 4.77%. The happy period continued to 1994, where the fans were, now, enjoying their work alongside Sachin’s scoring rate at 70 runs per innings. There were a few negative sentiments when he once got out at 96 against SL in Bangalore, but that was brushed aside. The new face of Indian cricket kept people happy and the economy grew at 6.65%.
It was 1995 when Sachin got married. Fans respected his privacy and the economy grew at 7.57% irrespective of his menial average of 29. The next year, Sachin came back to action to score at 42 runs per innings and the economy steadily grew at the same rate as the previous year. 1997 became the second feared year for the Indian economy – Sachin averaged 62 runs per innings and all Indians were caught guilty, watching him live on TV. Indian growth rate tumbled to 4%. The God of Cricket saw what was happening and offered a deal to his fans. He delivered at staggering 81 runs per innings in 1998 and the fans responded by working hard to push the growth rate to 6.2%. 1999 was even better, the economy got better to grow at 7.4%.
The year was 1991 when Sachin started to become a showstopper in the national fan-following arena. They watched him play, every ball of every test match and much to their dismay, he didn’t perform well. Indian fans were let down and devastated. They fell for the early show of brilliance and let their economy totter to grow at 1.06% that year. Economists said that the country went bankrupt and that is why they had to open the gates for privatization. But, huge expectations on Sachin and a paltry show by him with an average of 19.50 led to the economy debacle. Now you know how Sachin helped in liberalization of the Indian economy.

Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Batting Average
63.8
62.6
55.6
17.0
91.5
44.4
24.2
55.4
48.3
67.6
78.1

Cometh a new century, the fans went back on their words. Sachin delivered, yet the growth rate declined. The ups and downs disagreement continued for a while until 2003, when the fans lost interest in the game as Sachin’s average slumped to 17 for the year. Because of his under-performance, people stopped watching cricket and - would you believe it – Indian economy grew at 8.37%. For the first time, it had crossed 8% in the past 20 years. Sachin cherished this growth and he made his fans happy next year by scoring at 92 runs per innings, with almost three double hundreds.

The tussle went on for a while until 2008, when recession happened. Sachin’s inconsistent performance in the past few years left the fans upset and caused recession in the world. With back-to-back stellar performances which motivated the fans, Sachin helped the Indian economy grow above 9% in 2009 and 2010. However, the gloom around his 100th century has caused huge uproar in Europe and America and talks of a double-dip have surfaced. For the betterment for the world economy, let alone Indian, the earlier the 100th century comes, better are the chances to escape the double-dip.
Reports all around the world say that Indian economy will grow at unprecedented rate in the coming future. Their prediction could be right. Half of the Indian population will stop watching cricket and start working, once he retires.






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